Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Economic Performance Era Jokowi

Era Jokowi
How Achievement Economic Performance Era President Jokowi?
1.  How did the economic performance Jokowi-era President Jusuf Kalla during the early reign? For economists, and economists (not necessarily economists!), Who listened to our economic development on a regular basis, would be a direct answer to the perspective of each. For those who do not watch regularly, the answer will be searched bybrowsing through the Internet by entering the keyword "Jokowi economic performance", and in more detail opened statistical information published by various institutions, including the Central Bureau of Statistics, Bank Indonesia, the World Bank, or institute Other -lembaga.

2. For the mem- browsing of the internet, then almost all the news proclaiming dissatisfaction, incompetence, or failure to fulfill what was promised when such campaigns and early administration, and far from the expected. News that appears menyuratkan with the words: sag, add miserable, had no concept and direction, sluggish, less than the maximum, questionable, red value, less satisfied and unsatisfactory, worse than SBY, and words that explicitly or implicitly stated that the economic performance during the early months of the present Government is bad. In the form of quantitative exist even institutions (IDM, Indonesian Development Monitoring) launched the survey results: 90.5% of people are dissatisfied with the performance of the economy. The survey results were somewhat moderate from Poltracking, men otal sound less satisfied and not satisfied "only" 66.6%. Further directions news tentantang economic performance is attributed also to assess and highlight the economic team, which in suratkan with the words: weak, very poor coordination, weaken the position of the President, so it comes down to the economic team statement needs to be evaluated, even held reshuffle.

3.  Although almost all of the news "cornering" but not necessarily all of it's true, especially seen from a long term perspective. To evaluate the performance of a government is of course not enough just from a trip just six months, or only 10% of the total "travel" rule. In a period of four and a half years into the future can all be changed. Global economic conditions can be improved and conducive to the Indonesian economy. The ministers and assistant to the President others more learned, the better, and the more experienced, so its performance is also improved. Government also has the better coordination, both internally and with other agencies outside the government, the more stable and less "conflict" in the elite level so that it can run with good policies.

4.  However, a variety of bad-news it's not a bad thing. It was nice to remind the Government's Jokowi-JK. The message of the news negative tone was actually a very constructive: if this situation continues, then the worst situation can occur in the national economy. Our economy is not getting ahead, but will be worse off. Indonesia will be left behind compared to neighboring countries. The people will increasingly miserable. Therefore, various critical news haris government's attention, especially the economic team which is currently considered the most responsible for the poor results of the first six months of this.

5. If we look at a variety of quantitative data available, the various economic indicators is quantitatively shows a picture of concern. The basic assumptions in the budget -P been missed, which can be will continue to deteriorate.

Table: Basic Assumption Macroeconomics, 2009 - 2015


Era Jokowi
How Achievement Economic Performance Era President Jokowi?

Nlai rupiah since the last two months has been much in a bag basic assumption that R p 12,500, even already depreciated over USD 13,000 per dollar. It describes our macroeconomic instability. Similarly, Indonesia's crude oil price, it costs on average only US $ 53 (basic assumption of US $ 60) per barrel, lifting the average 742 thousand barrels (basic assumption of 825 thousand barrels per day and gas lifting average of 1,164 (1,220 basic assumption) r mother barrels of oil equivalent per day. Levels inflation, if there is not anything extraordinary, may remain safe. Similarly, the basic assumption SPN 3-month interest rates expected to remain within the limits that are in line with the assumptions. However, some of the assumptions that kemelesetan, which is very worrying at a variable rate of economic growth The. The weakening of the rupiah and the slipping of the price and production of oil will very much influence on the macro-economy as a whole. This could bepengaruh on targets or targets of employment, unemployment, poverty, income distribution, and other macroeconomic variables.

6.  Making assumptions is not very easy. Uncertainty factor (uncertainty) in the economy is very high. But if all assumptions misses, then it can be questionable rationality and competence drafting assumptions. I suspect, preparation assumptions are also based on the euphoria of the victory of the new President at the time, so just modify the assumptions made ​​the previous government, which seemed to be able to make the economy grow rapidly. We recall, for example, Mr. JK was even hum double-digit growth.The objectives of the policy were made ​​really very nice if could be realized. However, the different policies in the hope or wishful thinking. Policies must be implemented and it should see the level of reality. Therefore, if the policy is made, then it means may be realized by segalanm existing constraints.

7. Problems arise when the euphoria to meet the promise of paradise in the economy ultimately deny reality, and the likelihood n -Enables bad that happens. Plans and policies made ​​into ambitious as could build a good economy as turning the palm of the hand. Assume that what is in the mind can be done, and the economic environment and society regarded as a vacuum. With such conditions, and it turns out the fact that encountered in the field are very different premises suspected. Thus it is not surprising that economic performance is not as expected, lower than the target, and gives a signal to not materialized in this first year.

8. Beyond the basic assumption that misses the point, which describes the economic performance is not good economic performance is a decrease in the stock price index exhibited significantly, the balance of payments which marked weakening of exports, weak anticipation of post transfer price of fuel subsidies and the gradual release of fuel prices on the market, and tax revenue which is below the target, which will have an impact on the overall budget posture. This has an impact on the welfare of society as a whole.

9. Indikator are clearly visible and proves that the view of the observers concerns about jebloknya short-term economic performance is the low lane of economic growth in 2015's first quarter, the first quarter economic growth figures-2015 only reached 4.71%. This is far below the target pertumbeuhan 2015 target of 5.7%. A ngka l ketch is also more than economic growth quarter I-2014 which grew 5.2% on an annual basis (year-on-year). With domestic conditions and global as it is now, to be very reasonable if it arises tone clicking worried it not only targets economic growth of the first year of Jokowi-Jk is not reached, but worried about slowing economic growth is air l anjut. The situation is certainly far from being heralded before, especially during the presidential campaign and the beginning of a new government is formed. Even appearing on optimism that the economy could grow by two digits. Current euphoria and optimism that change is called "Jokowi effect" spawned great expectations of economic growth and equity. In fact, if it is seen now, is still far from expectations. Jokowi effect, with the figure of honesty, efisiens i, anti-corruption, dared to take to the verdict, as if invisible. Therefore, it is also not surprising that there is some sort of panic in the ruling elite associated economic growth The. Although packed with words remain optimistic, but can not cover up the anxiety. Even some members of the economic cabinet was helm for reshuffle due to the rigors of criticism in this economic performance.

10.  Lahu low economic growth has menimbukan various pertranyaan well as finding the culprit. A sufficient answer to the fore of our officials, such as Vice President statement and Coordinating Minister of Economy, for example, is that the global economic situation is not favorable economic weakening our economy can not be separated from global economic conditions. Whereas at global level also happens slowdown, such as Chinese and European economic slowdown which is the market for our exports.

11.  If it he argued, it would appear p ertanyaan another, namely whether in setting economic growth target was not mempredikasi global situation? Obviously it was expected.When the draft budget was decided in the House of Representatives, aspects related to the global situation, as world oil prices, exchange rate, or the rate of the global economy, has been included in the study so that the set growth targets "realistic". Similarly, the local situation is predicted to occur, into variables that are taken into account before setting the figure of 5.7%. Obviously our economy is not sterile on the global economy, and it is already known together. So I rang be fitting if the blame solely to situations internationally. Own domestic situation should be seen and a lot that needs to be addressed. Profanity in the country are factors that cause uncertainty for economic actors, certainly contributed a great deal in this decline. Legal and political instability, weak leadership and subordinate noncompliance impression on the national leadership, giving a negative sentiment on the economy. It is also a booster for peretumbuhan economic slowdown.

12.  Team- work d nature of the Cabinet economics does not look solidity and coordination. The impression is unclear and walk alone, even criticism addressed to the economic cabinet is because they are carried by different factions. S policy ebetulnya s angat ideal, but its implementation is weak. Policy related to the reduction of fuel subsidies and fuel pasarisasi   also not managed properly, so up and down domestic fuel prices have an impact on price volatility are detrimental to society. Does not mean a reduction in fuel subsidy policy is bad, but the management of the policy in question. It is natural that this situation then begs the question on the competence of the cabinet in the economic field, which is considered strong is not separated from the cabinet reciprocation and "horse-trading", which is far different from what was promised in the last presidential campaign. No problem actually that position for reciprocation along competence or rations politicians put forward. But all is not too late, this government has been running for several months to fix everything.

13.    But in the context of economic growth, it can not be used as a handle that will further lower. This year it seems it is difficult to achieve the growth target this year on target. However, higher growth is needed for subsequent years, of course with due respect to equalization which also tend to be more unequal. In a very short j figures to watch out for is if the economic growth is increasingly slowed. This could happen if this downward trend to be underestimated, is regarded as something simple and simply blaming external circumstances or globally, so the anticipation is not appropriate. If now it determines, for example, demand for Indonesian products in the global market weakened, then what should be done. How to find new markets beyond existing markets for this? How to boost dayasing, and also encourage more economic bergeraknyta society. Things like this should not only be a concern, namunjuga anticipation detail should have been prepared. The attitude that seemed to give up, to blame the global situation without concrete action, would be devastating, because it can lead to deeper economic decline in the rate will occur.

14.   The pace of economic rowth p associated with domestic consumption as well, and this even the largest element in shaping our GDP. It must be stimulated by consumption diba Rengi supply of products is needed, especially domestic product as well. The same thing with the investment, which is one of the dominant element forming our GDP. The investment will be planted, both by local and foreign investors when the economic actors , domestic and local, comfortable and not worry about the socio-political climate of the domestic economy. Fiscal policy, which reflects government spending, also need to be stimulated so that expenditure can be effectively and efficiently to cause expansion in the national economy. Barriers bureaucratic in budget expenditures. D emikian also people's economic, Marhaen economy, which used to staying during the campaign, is a tremendous economic driver if truly observed and enforced. Currently the complaints of the weak economy that was increasingly impoverished widely reported.

15. Society is actually already familiar with the difference between the government echoed with reality. Since the New Order era, the various appointments and soothing words about development and economic data always comes up. People are ready to accept the reality that is different from what is conveyed verbally by officials, or by statistical difference with the real numbers. But in the era of President Jokowi these different responses emerge when the promise and the reality is far different. This is because the community had high hopes that President Jokowi this. Society has absorbed deeply the various winds of change that was promised. Community so confident and have great hopes on Jokowi. We look at how the proponents of the campaign period and fanaticism Jokowi can not accept a criticism at that time presidential candidate. With hope and fanaticism like that, then it becomes reasonable when the situation is not as imagined happening raises a very big disappointment anyway.

16.  One of which is cause for optimism at the beginning of the Jokowi is his determination to penegakah law and scrape out corruption. This is a very significant factor leading to inaction national economic development over the years. Weak law enforcement has increasingly exalts uncertainty in economic activity. Various expenditures for investments, for example, become uncertain, which makes p ara investors and the overall economy hesitate to carry out economic activity. Similarly, graft, corruption, and the like have caused high-cost economy. Bodies of State-Owned Enterprises are also often perceived to be "cash cows" many parties, thereby causing performance is not optimal. Things like this promised to be cleaned. However, if seen from the performance of the first half of his reign, it is like "roast away from fire". It can be seen how the Commission which has been highly feared and respected an institution that seemed to lose its fangs, without any powers of the presidency, which is strong and firm save him. Currently all know that the Commission has power break away sag than ever before Jokowi. It's getting away from the second nawacita echoed Jokowi, namely ".... will make the government do not miss the building clean governance, effective, democratic, and reliable ".   If this continues sutuasi then certainly we will go back into decline, and economic performance will fall further than expected and promised.

17.   The state of our economy is increasingly threatened if there is no serious effort to make reinforcement-strengthening and improvement considering the end of this year will already implemented the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC / MEA) which makes our economy to be very liberal in the ASEAN region. MEA is essentially the liberalization which covers all areas of the economy which has been partially still we inhibitory entered, either through tariffs or non-tariff. This liberalization includes five elements that will get liberated, namely the free flow of goods, services, investment, capital, and labor. Thus, intra-ASEAN economic relations already resembles economic relations within the European Community (EC). Only difference is mainly related to the single currency in ASEAN is still limited discourse, freedom traffic antarwarganegara that ASEAN still need a passport, and the absence of ASEAN Central Bank in the EC already has the European Central Bank, which is responsible for monetary policy for 16 countries that use the euro currency.

18.    In normal circumstances, the level of competitiveness as it is now not easy for Indonesia to compete with other ASEAN countries, especially with Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand. Moreover, with the liberalization that we do, which is now much freer. Our experience premises China, when implemented CAFTA (China-ASEAN Free TradeAgrrement) in early 2010, in a short period of Chinese products flooding the Indonesian market. The situation is almost the same as the MEA. When the idea has been echoed in the early 2000s and was agreed in 2004, we have not prepared and as many situations as normal, business as usual. However, when it would be implemented, in injury time barulan us busy and declared not ready. As a result, China's natural that much better off than Indonesia in the presence of the CAFTA. The same thing can happen again with the MEA. The new government must be its own to run fast, and should immediately step on the gas already prepared all the strategies for the implementation of MEAs when we're ready. But what happens is our inadvertence, and if there is no special anticipation for this MEA. Whereas k elalaian or inaction in addressing the MEA will potentially make Indonesia into the ASEAN markets other products, and will make us become "living in their own country".

19.     However, as stated in advance, with a very short period of time, we can not take the conclusion that Jokowi-JK government has failed to build the Nation economy. At least not until half way can only be assessed more objectively. Still it is possible if the subsequent semesters bida made ​​various improvements, various plans can diaktualkan, teams better coordinate economic, security and political stability maintained, increasingly intensified efforts to combat corruption , and the high cost economy increasingly pressed, then the acceleration of economic development could occur. However, if the situation ahead anyway as the first half, the results were worse than its predecessor in economic Bisang, and possibly also in other fields, it could happen. ***


Attachment
Nine priority programs Jokowi-Jk (Nawa Cita)
  1. We will bring back the state to protect the nation and give a sense of security to all citizens, through the implementation of free and active foreign policy, national security defense is reliable and the development of integrated Matra Tri country that is based on national interests and strengthen its identity as a maritime state ,
  2. We will make the government do not miss the building clean governance, effective, democratic, and reliable.
  3. We will build Indonesia from the periphery to strengthen the regions and villages within the framework of a unitary state.
  4. We will reject the weaker countries by reforming the system and law enforcement corruption-free, dignified and reliable.
  5. We will improve the quality of Indonesian human life, by improving the quality of education and training with Indonesia Pintar program 12 years of free compulsory levies.
  6. We will improve people's productivity and competitiveness in the international market, so that the Indonesian nation can move forward and rise with other Asian nations.
  7. We will achieve economic independence by moving the strategic sectors of the domestic economy.
  8. We will do the national character of the revolution, through policy realignment of the national education curriculum with advanced aspects of civic education.
  9. Diversity 9. We will strengthen and reinforce social restoration Indonesia, through strengthening the policy of diversity education and create spaces of dialogue between residents.


By Edy Suandi Hamid
  • Presented at the public discussion themed "Effective Still Jokowi-JK administration in Indonesia Delivers Nation Towards a Prosperous and Kerkeadilan?" held MMD Initiative, the NAM Hotel Angkasa Jakarta May 27, 2015.
  • Professor of Economic Science at FE UII Yogyakarta, Vice Chairman of the Central Board of Indonesian Economists Association (ISEI), Chairman of the Association of Indonesian Private University (APTISI), and Rector UII (2006-2014).
Source: Source KPU.go.id

0 komentar:

Post a Comment